Are Toddlers Less Obese Today?

04/09/2014

Are Toddlers Less Obese Today?

The cup that is already full cannot have more added to it. In order to receive the further good to which we are entitled, we must give of that which we have.
Margaret Becker

“Obesity Rate in Young Children Plummets 43% in a Decade,” proclaimed a story in the New York Times (February 25, 2014). This story generated a lot of excitement. But a closer analysis of the original data from the most recent National Health and Nutrition Study Examination Survey (NHANES) by the FiveThirtyEight Science website, "Reports of a Drop in Childhood Obesity are Overblown," puts a damper on this enthusiasm. This article took an in-depth look at the statistical significance of the data and concluded:

"In light of the discussion above, we have to ask whether it’s just one of the spurious significant changes you’re always going to find if you look at small enough groupings within a data set. Unfortunately, it seems possible that it is. Although my analysis certainly doesn’t mean the study’s conclusions are wrong, it does raise questions about whether the drop in obesity in the sample is representative of a drop in obesity among 2- to 5-year-olds in the U.S. overall. To believe that this is a consistent, long-lasting change, we would want to subject the data to the more rigorous statistical testing I describe above. And on that standard, it fails. It may be that the health of American toddlers is improving — and I hope it is — but based on the NHANES data, there’s no strong reason to think this is the case."

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